At 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Chetumal to San Felipe on the Yucatan Peninsula. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
At 11 am EDT...the government of Cuba has issued a tropical storm watch for the provinces of Pinar del Rio and la Habana. A tropical storm watch is now in effect for the following provinces...Pinar del Rio...la Habana... Ciego de Avila...Sancti Spiritus... Cienfuegos... Matanzas...and Isla de la Juventud. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from west of the Haiti-dominican border to Port-au-Prince. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Haiti north of Port-au-Prince to the northern Haiti-Dominican Republic border. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for portions of eastern Cuba...from the province of Camaguey eastward to the province of Guantanamo. Interests elsewhere in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Dean.
At 1100 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located near latitude 17.0 north...longitude 75.1 west or about 130 miles... 210 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 215 miles... 345 km...west-southwest of Port au Prince Haiti. Dean is moving west near 18 mph...30 km/hr. A motion between west and west-northwest is expected over the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of Dean will be very near the island of Jamaica by early this afternoon.
Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph...230 km/hr...with higher gusts. Dean is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles...335 km. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft was 926 mb...27.34 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 7 to 9 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...is possible near the center of Dean within the Hurricane Warning area. Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches can be expected over Jamaica...with maximum amounts of up to 20 inches. Amounts of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches are expected over the Cayman Islands.
Additional amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible over southern Hispaniola with maximum storm totals of 10 inches. Eastern Cuba could receive 2 to 4 inches of rain...with maximum amounts up to 7 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Repeating the 1100 am EDT position...17.0 N...75.1 W. Movement toward...west near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...145 mph. Minimum central pressure...926 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 200 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/)
Our analysis indicates that most of the exposure value concentration is in Cancun-Mexico. We have a lot of Hotels in our list of accounts and that is why there are 3 of our adjusters now flying to Cancun. Their mission is to have in place the Logistic Center either in Cancun City or Playa del Carmen...let me point out that we have accumulate a lot of experience due to Emily and Wilma hurricanes, 2005.
Once they place the Logistic Center, they will move out to Merida in order to be safe and then they will return to Cancun or Playa del Carmen by ground just after passing the hurricane. We have rented a 4x4 vehicle since the road from Merida to Cancun can be flooded and we are prepared with telecommunications equipments. We have sent several Bulletins to our customers over the last 4 days informing the progress of this storm and we are expecting to receive assigns from MAPFRE, ZURICH, ALLIANZ, SWISS RE and others Insurers/Reinsurers.
In terms of Jamaica..We have at least 2 big hotels to handle in Montego Bay and 1 adjuster will fly to Jamaica as soon as the airports get open in order to recognize the area. Our Miami Regional Office will be the Center for receiving and processing the reported losses. Here in Miami we will address the appropriate human resources and contact the adjusters on field according to their locations and expertise. If you need any assistance or doubt, please don't hesitate to contact us.
Best Regards Francisco Javier Guardia
CAT Coordinator firstname.lastname@example.org
Ph.: +1 7867770600 Cell: +1 305 2824336